Florida at LSU

All the talk in this one revolves around two things: the status of Tim Tebow and the dominance of LSU under the lights in Baton Rouge. I'll address the Tebow status first. The right move is to keep him out here but there's a decen chance he plays. Urban Meyer said this week that doctors assured him Tebow would not be any more susceptible to a second concussion Saturday as he would be later in the season. Even if he does not play (and I always plan for the worst), Florida has the advantage everywhere. This is a National Championship team returning depth and just about every meaningful starter from that team. Whiel he gets the media attention, it isn't all about Tebow. This line reflects the very strong reality he won't play as if he were healthy, we'd be laying double-digits. Now, what about LSU at home? Yes, the Tigers have been a force here, but how many of those games were against the talent they will face on the other side here? Probably none! The reality is that since 1992, LSU is 5-19 ATS at home vs. teams at .750 or better! Over the past three seasons they are 1-11 ATS vs. teams that average 4.75+ rushing yards per carry (Flordia averages 7.0 per tote). LSU is hyped this year, but they certainly haven't lived up to it on the field other than the win column which makes them look better than they are. They scored on a punt return and an INT vs. Mississippi State, had a +4 turnover advantage and won by just 4 points over a very mediocre team. They pulled one out late vs. Georgia in a game where the offense generated one TD. They were outgained by LA Lafayette - are you kidding me? They were also outgained by Washington by an amazing 160 yards, had an INT for a TD there, as well as +1 in the turnover battle. Florida is simply better all around and has more team speed and depth. The Gators are 8-0 ATS vs. winning teams dating back to last season. LSU is 0-8 ATS the past three seasons vs. winning teams! A lot of people like the Tigers here, but not me. I’m going with the Gators.