Florida at LSU

LSU is a big favorite in this SEC rivalry game. But, they have been a sloppy team under the new coaching staff, struggling against good defenses. LSU got shut down by Alabama in their last home game, losing 10-0. They were also favored over Auburn and lost 18-13, plus opened the season as -12.5 favorites over Wisconsin and lost 16-14. They face one of the best defenses in the country in Florida at fifth in points allowed (13.3 points per game), third in yards (267 per game). The Gators are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Gators were a +8 dog to Ole Miss last season and won 38-10, and a +11.5 dog two years ago to rival Georgia and won 38-20. Florida has the better coach, the better defense, and has more than enough to keep this a close. The wagering value is on the Gators to pull the big upset, so play Florida to win this one straight-up. Also take the UNDER. The average points opponents are scoring against these two defenses this year is 13.6. In their last seven November games, Florida is 7-0 to the UNDER. The Gators are also 8-3 UNDER in their last 11 road games. LSU has not surpassed the toal in their last eight home games and the Tigers are also 15-5 to the UNDER in their last 21 conference games. Take Florida straight-up and the UNDER.