Florida at Kentucky

We were on Florida the last two weeks as they won easily and covered both games, but now it's time for the fade. The Gator offense has not produced at the level it did under the leadership of Tim Tebow. John Brantley has developed, but is at best an average college QB, and the Gators will need a solid running game in this one as they take to the road to face Kentucky. The Wildcats graduated most of their playmakers on offense last year, but defensively they are solid, ranked No. 9 in NCAAF and allowing just 13.3 points per game. Last year they went through a five-game stretch allowing 40 ppg, but the before was great, and the five games after the defensive slump, including their Bowl game, saw no one score more than 27 points. They have extended that streak to eight straight games through their first three this season. I think that playing at home vs. the Gators will have that defense at its best. Getting nearly three TDs will make for a hard cover for the Gators here. Florida is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a winning team, while the Wildcats are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the points with Kentucky.