Eastern Michigan at Toledo

This one seems to easy. Take the mighty 8-1 team that is 5-0 at home vs. the 4-5 (0-4 on the road) weakling. Not so fast. This is a ton of points in a look-ahead spot for the big favorite. Eastern Michigan is 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings as it covered as a four-point underdog in a 27-24 loss last year and defeated the Rockets 52-49 as a nine-point dog in 2021. The Eagles had covered four straight this season before losing to Western Michigan on Oct. 28, but they're getting big points tonight against Toledo, which has a rivalry game against Bowling Green on deck. Eastern Michigan has had a disappointing season, but still has motivation to earn a bowl berth, and the Eagles allow only 22.3 points per game, going 8-1-1 ATS their past 10 conference games. Also, Eastern Michigan is 6-1 ATS on the road versus teams with winning home records and 5-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 170 passing yards its previous game. Toledo is 1-5 ATS against opponents with losing records. Under Chris Creighton, the Eagles are 45-32 ATS in the underdog role including 15-6 ATS as a dog in this 10.5 to 21 point range. They are also 36-20 ATS on the road under Creighton including 13-3 ATS on the road after a home loss. Meanwhile, Toledo is 10-24 ATS under Jason Candle when coming off a home win including 4-17 ATS if that win came vs. a conference opponent. Take Eastern Michigan as my Midweek Game of the Year.