East Carolina at Kentucky

East Carolina was the surprise of the country in the early going. They beat Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back games to open the season - vaulting them into the national spotlight. Things went downhill fast after a third win over Tulane. The great start was met with three-straight painful losses where they gave up 106 points to teams that would go on to earn a Bowl bid. They finished strong, but nowhere near the team they were in those first two. Two trips into BCS conference territory resulted in two losses by 21 points. Kentucky met a similar fate as they opened 4-0, toppling Louisville. In game five, they suffered their first loss to a top-rated Crimson Tide team by just three points on the road. They also hung tough scoring 38 against a good Georgia defense, dropping the game by four, and were even with South Carolina late until losing by seven. Outside of their big games to open the season East Carolina hasn’t played any big teams and struggled in too many games where they should have dominated. Kentucky played a much more difficult schedule and almost broke through against top teams. Kentucky hasn't shown a big offense, but against teams with winning records they seem to rise up, as all four of their last games against teams with winning records have gone OVER. I think they are battle tested, and East Carolina has not been anywhere near the team that took the field in the first two weeks, so I'll back Kentucky and the OVER here.