Duke vs. Florida State

I have ridden with Florida State on several occasions this season with extremely high point spreads, and this will be no different. Kudos to Duke for having a great season, but they are simply no match for Florida State. These teams have met 18 times and Florida State is 18-0, and 12-6 ATS with the closest game having been 19 points. When Florida State has faced Duke to a line of less than -30 they are 9-0 ATS, winning by an average of 35 points per game. They have faced a Duke team over .500 and are 5-0 ATS in those games, winning by 40.6 points per game. They have even faced some good Duke teams in the 90s and are 3-0 ATS against a Duke team over .700. The bottom line here is that Duke is basically an average to a tick above average from the line of scrimmage, but Florida State is elite on both sides of the ball. The Noles have won seven of their last eight games overall by 30 points. Those blowout wins have come against the likes of Florida, Miami and Clemson - and two of those were on the road. Florida State has held 10 opponents to 14 points or less, while getting to 48 points or more nine times. Last year, they beat the Blue Devils 48-7 despite being -4 in turnovers, and Duke has simply not closed the gap enough to fare much better in this one. Unbeaten favorites from -21.5 to -31 points that are on at least a seven game winning streak are 73-40 ATS, including 6-1 ATS this year, and 29-4 ATS since 2007. Lay the bundle and play on Florida State to claim the ACC crown.