Colorado at Toledo

Toledo is never an easy out when you get them at home. They have also proven to be best when they aren't expected to win as they have turned in an 8-3 ATS mark as a home dog this decade. The Buffaloes, who once played even with Nebraska and Oklahoma in the Big-12, have not been seen since the 1990s. The proof came last week when they were a big favorite at home vs. a weak Colorado State team with a brand new quarerback, and before you knew it they were down 20-3. The offense is simply a mess and the coaching is suspect. Dan Hawkins, while he killed it at Boise, is just 13-23 ATS at Colorado. He claims the Buffs are capable of winning ten games this season, but now there are just 11 left and he has to go to Oklahoma State and Texas yet, so I don't see it. The play calling and defensive line are issues and the secondary is very suspect. This is a team that has won a total of two road games in the last three years and have no right being favored in this spot. Very telling is the fact the Buffalo's are 0-6 ATS following a game where the offense generated 275 yards or less. Toledo is a tough out at home where they are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 played. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home coming off a road loss. I'm going with Toledo in this one.