Colorado at California

It's hard to see why Cal is such a big favorite in this evenly matched Pac 12 tilt. Colorado has been forced to go with freshman QB Brendon Lewis, but the kid keeps getting better with four TDs and two INTs on the season. Colorado has a 10-7 loss to No. 5 Texas A&M under its belt as a +17 dog and comes off a 34-0 shutout of Arizona on Saturday. The Buffaloes are 10-1 ATS following a victory of 20+ points. Snakebitten California has only one victory, over Sacramento State. In losses to Nevada (as a favorite), Washington, Washington State (again as chalk), and Oregon, the Bears averaged 16 points, yet here they are a big favorite. Cal is 5-13 straight up in its last 18 games and is 65-95 ATS as a favorite, including 2-10 ATS as home chalk. Also, college football underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with 16 or more total starters returning are 73-34 ATS. Play Colorado.