Cincinnati at Louisville

The Cincinnati Bearcats were ranked to start the season, but have played nothing like a ranked team. It's obviously they were vastly overrated coming into the season. They beat up on Indiana State (missing the cover as a 45-point favorite). The Bearcats also delivered a blowout to Miami, Ohio. But they could not find the win column in their other three games. Louisville has been better than advertised this season. They lost the two games they were supposed to lose, but were in both of them. They went on the road vs. Oregon State as a three touchdown underdog but lost by just 7 points. They outgained the Beavers in that game by 134 yards, done in by a -2 turnover margin. They have great balance with Adam Froman throwing for 1,177 yards at 8.5 yards per pass, and running behind Bilal Powell who already has churned out 689 yards at 7.6 yards a carry and 7 TDs. The Bearcats haven't been covering much of anything of late at just 2-8 ATS in their last 10. The Cards’ success running the ball has bred even more success as they are 23-10 ATS after running for over 200 yards in their last game. Cincinnati is 0-2 SU and ATS on the road and they are facing a Louisville team that has shown they can play. I like the home dog here.