Cincinnati at Houston

Unbeaten Houston has had a monster season and is getting better down the stretch, winning the last three games by 35, 49 and 34 points -- the latter to an SEC team (Vandy). QB Greg Ward Jr (11 TDs, two picks) is a force with 16 rushing touchdowns and teams with RB Kenneth Farrow (751 yards) in a backfield with two players averaging over 5.8 yards per carry. Ward threw for 221 yards and a touchdown while running for another in last week's 34-0 rout of Vanderbilt -- the first time an SEC school had been shutout in a non-conference game in 11 years. The Cougars are on a 25-10-1 ATS run, 35-17-1 ATS after a victory. Houston is averaging 45.9 points to rank fifth in scoring, and is tied for the FBS lead with 22 turnovers forced. The Cougars have outscored their last three opponents 135-17 while not allowing a point in the second half, on a 7-2 run UNDER the total in November. Cincinnati has a losing road record and is 2-6 ATS after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Bearcats are also on a 4-0 run UNDER the total, as well as 12-3 UNDER in November when the weather starts turning. Cincinnati couldn't slow down Ward last year as he threw for a career-high 360 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 84 and another score. The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings, so grab home field and look for this underrated Houston defense to be a big difference-maker. Back Houston and the UNDER.