Central Florida at Southern Miss

Last year, Central Florida had one of the worst offenses in college football. This season things don't look much brighter as they managed to gain just 282 yards against Samford last week. That certainly doesn't bode well for them here as Southern Miss was putting together a high-octane display of offense in their opener, good for 631 yards. Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora has put up a 26.6 points per game win margin when the Golden Eagles win as the offense leads the way. And as the offense gets better, the covers keep coming as the Golden Eagles covered their final five a year ago, including their Bowl win as an underdog. When you play at home against Samford, get out-gained and have to come from behind to win, it doesn't bode well heading on the road against a high-octane offense, especially when you've proven that you can't move the ball. Under George O'Learly, UCF is 0-8 ATS on the road following a non-conference game. I'm going with Southern Miss in this one.