Central Florida at Houston

Houston has for the most part been built for offense over the years. That is a reputation that is hard to shake and as a result, it influences the totals in their games. This year's Houston Cougars team is not the high-octane version of Houston we have seen in the past, and consequently hey have played four straight to the UNDER this season. They are also defending much better, allowing just 74 points in four games, or 18.5 points per game. Central Florida was led by now NFL QB Blake Bortles last season, so their offense is not nearly what it was last year. Yes, they scored 41 on Bethune Cookman, but they scored just 34 total points in their two prior games. This is a team that has always been defense first, and with Bortles in the NFL, that is not going to change this season. They played 8-4 to the UNDER a year ago despite a powerful offense, which is now gone. Central Florida may have another issue here as their biggest remaining game left on the schedule follows this one, which is against vs. BYU, so they might get caught napping. These teams played a rugged defensive-oriented game last year with Central Florida coming out on top 19-14, and I expect Houston to turn the tables this season. The Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 40+ in their previous game, and have been 5-12 ATS in their last 17 off a bye. Houston has been a momentum team and is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 off a spread win. Houston is also 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight after gaining greater than 450 yards in their previous game. The Knights are also 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six  off a bye. Take Houston on the moneyline and the UNDER in this one.