Central Florida at Houston

UCF has won four in a row after starting the season 1-2. They have covered the spread six straight times. As a result, they are favored here on the road. But let's look at those four recent wins for the Knights. They came against UAB, Marshall, Rice, and E. Carolina - all bad teams. In the two games vs. tougher competition this season (NC State and Kansas State), UCF couldn't get it done. Houston has really stepped it up the past couple of weeks, rolling over both SMU and Memphis by a combined score of 101-37. This team has scored 42+ in four if their seven games and is averaging 42 ppg (47 at home). While Central Florida has nice defensive stats, they haven't faced an offense like this. Over the past three seasons, the Cougars are 10-2 ATS and perfect against conference foes. I like the live home dog here.