This pick was released to clients on December 20, 2018 at 1:26PM ET.
img CFB

Buffalo vs. Troy

December 22, 2018
img7:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL - This is the first Bowl game for Buffalo in five years. They haven't done well in bowls, either, losing 38-20 to UConn (2008) and 49-24 to San Siego State (2013). Buffalo expected to be in a better Bowl game. The Bulls were favored in the MAC title game, but lost to Northern Illinois, 30-29, blowing a 29-10 lead. The run defense is #65 in the nation allowing 165.3 yards per game and the team has failed to cover five straight neutral-site games. While Buffalo is traveling a long way to Alabama for this Bowl game, Troy catches a break as this game is in Mobile, located three hours from their campus. Troy is #29 defensively in yards allowed, #23 in points surrendered (21.3 pg). And the offense is fast and balanced behind junior RB B.J. Smith (1,093 yards, 5.5 ypc), WR Deondre Douglas (437 yards) and senior WR Damion Willis (775 yards, 18 yards per catch) is a big-play threat. The Trojans won at Nebraska this season (24-19) as a +10 dog and are making their third straight Bowl game appearance, beating Ohio (28-23) two years ago and crushing North Texas (50-30) last season. Troy is on a 12-3-1 spread run, as well as 42-20-2 ATS against winning teams. Play Troy.

1 unit on Troy +2 (-114) (risk 1 to return 1.88)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Buffalo Bulls
7
10
7
8
32
Troy Trojans img
7
7
7
21
42
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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