Buffalo at Miami Ohio

Buffalo has been a tale of two teams this season. In their first and last games they averaged 38 points and gave up 16. In their middle two games, they averaged 15 points and gave up 40. Which team will show up? The game in which they gave up the most points this season (45) came against Penn State as a 31 point underdog. That's not this game as this basically an even matchup. They scored 38 each against Robert Morris and Temple. Miami Ohio's defense gave up 17 to lowly Tennessee Tech but they allowed an average of 50 points per game in their other three (yes, you read that right). But those defensive efforts all came on the road to relative powerhouses including Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. The 76 they allowed to the latter is skewing things here and Buffalo is not in the same league as any of those teams. Outside of the Tennessee Tech game in which Miami was somehow favored by 37 points, the Red Hawks have averaged just 10.7 points per game. Miami Ohio is just 30-16 UNDER in their last 47 games following a game in which they allowed 37+ points. Over the last three seasons, they are 12-3 UNDER after an ATS loss and they are on a 28-9 UNDER run after back-to-back losses. Under head coach Lance Leipold, Buffalo is 21-7 UNDER after a spread loss. Take the UNDER.