Buffalo at Massachusetts

The UMass Minutemen had a lot of trouble adjusting to the elevated play in the FBS, but they have made some strong progress this season. They came into this season having gone 2-22 straight-up in their first two years in the FBS, and started this season at 0-6 to fall to 2-28. The light finally came on as the Minutemen are 3-2 in their last five games, and a win here would finish them at .500 in conference play, that's quite an achievement, and that is why I think they will be the motivated team here. Buffalo had a strong team a year ago, but most of the key pieces are gone and they have slipped significantly this season. The Bulls have lost four of their last five, and have allowed 36 points or more in 5 of their 10 games on the season. The UMass offense has been clicking and that is why they are suddenly finding the win column and should score plenty here. The Minutemen's game has translated well on field turf where they are a stunning 8-1 ATS, and for a bad team those numbers are big. Take UMass.