Buffalo at Connecticut

The Buffalo Bulls are off what has to be one of their biggest victories in the history of the program, as they knocked off a previous unbeaten Ball State team. That has really held the line down for this one as there is no way this one would be under a seven-point line if the Bulls were off a different result, so it is loaded with value on UConn. If I gave you these numbers, tell me who won the game? Yardage 503-301. First downs 30-18. Time of possession 34:18 to 25:42. Total domination, but the team with all these advantages, lost this particular game by 18 points! That was the advantage Ball State had on Buffalo! Buffalo didn't beat Ball State, they beat themselves with five costly turnovers, and two that went the distance for 14 Buffalo points as they were about to score. Despite turning the ball over five times, they still had 12 more first downs and 200 more yards - hardly an eye-opening Buffalo performance, so that game opened eyes from the final score, but not their performance on the field. They will take on a UConn team with the No. 10 best defense in the country and on that has allowed under 20 ppg against teams much better than Buffalo. UConn also features a running back in Donald Brown who ran for 1,828 yards and 17 TDs against defenses much better than the No. 96 defense Buffalo brings here. The Huskies’ offense hasn't been great, but when they have faced poor defenses, of the ilk of Buffalo's, they scored 39 against Syracuse (No. 101), and 31 against Baylor (No. 88). This line is short by quite a few points, so I'll back the Huskies here.