Buffalo at Baylor

Buffalo was able to generate more than expected against Ohio State last week. But, the Buckeyes showed a lot of the same a year ago vs. bad teams. They beat Indiana by just 3 as a 19-point favorite, struggled to a 29-15 win over UAB as a 35.5-point favorite, and needed OT vs. Purdue as a 17-point favorite. So, I'm not putting a lot into that game. The Baylor offense is a system, and Bryce Petty will put up big numbers for the Bears. Baylor went for nearly 700 yards last week, and have shown a penchant to do that to lesser skilled teams, so a repeat is not out of the question at home vs. Buffalo. This is not the type of versatile offense that the Bulls are accustomed to seeing in the MAC. The one exception may be Northern Illinois, who beat them by 42 points last year. This is where Baylor is different than Ohio State, as the Bears are 14-3 ATS when playing a team with a losing record. They are also 12-2 ATS the past couple of seasons at home. Under Art Briles, Baylor is 18-8 ATS as a favorite. Play this one on Baylor.