Bowling Green at Toledo

Toledo improved to 5-2 with a 13-6 win over Northern Illinois, covering as a 3-point underdog. Alan Richter and Jerjuan Newton connected on a 52-yard TD pass and the rest of the scoring was field goals as the Rockets held the Huskies to 4-for-19 on third down and 2-of-8 on fourth in a defensive battle, as the game stayed UNDER by 23.5 points. Bowling Green is 5-2 UNDER this season after beating Kent State 27-6 while not covering the 24-point spread. The Falcons are have gone UNDER by an average of 21.8 points their past two games, including a 17-7 loss to Northern Illinois. Bowling Green has lost six of its past seven meetings at Toledo, and 12 of the past 14 meetings overall, and I expect a strong defensive effort here. Take this game to stay UNDER the number.