Bowling Green at Toledo

Bowling Green conquered the best MAC team in the Championship Game last season, taking down unbeaten Northern Illinois 47-27. They had a strong defense a season ago and had to rebuild a lot of it. The defense took their lumps in the early going as the Falcons' depleted defense was allowing a brutal 49.2 points per game in their first five games vs. FBS opponents. They have really improved dramatically over the second half of the season as they have now allowed just 17.3 ppg in their last four. Granted, the offenses they have faced in the stretch have not been as good as a whole, but there is no denying that this team has improved on that side of the ball. They certainly look like they may once again face Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game again this season. Toledo's poor defense has caused them to play in closer games than expected, and in fact the Rockets are just 2-7 ATS on the season and the two covers were by a half point in one game, and just four in the other. The Falcons come in with a strong road resume, which reads 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53. Take Bowling Green and the points.