Bowling Green at Memphis

There is a high total for this one partly because the Bowling Green defensive stats are skewed after giving up 77 points to Ohio State in the opener. Bowling Green was hit as hard as any team during the offseason as they returned just 10 total starters and lost major pieces on offense including QB Matt Johnson and WR Roger Moore. The 2016 Bowling Green quarterbacks have struggled, with just three TDs and eight picks combined. The Falcons come off a loss to Middle Tennessee State, getting shut out in the second half to a defense ranked #74 in the nation in yards allowed. Bowling Green is 16-6 UNDER the total when following a spread loss. Memphis lost last year's starting QB Paxton Lynch to the NFL, so junior a transfer QB Riley Ferguson (five TDs, two INTs) has stepped in. The Memphis defense has been sharp, allowing 24 points total in two games. They come off a win against Kansas where they allowed seven points and 3.9 yards per rush, while the pass D allowed 193 yards, no TDs and two picks. The defense also forced six turnovers. Defensively, Memphis is holding its opponents to an average of just 12.0 ppg on 283.5 total yards (168.0 passing, 115.5 rushing). Both of Memphis's games have gone UNDER the total as part of a 6-0 run UNDER, including four straight games at home UNDER where the defense plays best. Play Bowling Green/Memphis UNDER the total.