Boise State at San Diego State

If there was ever a team that applies to the "you can see it, but can't get it," it is Boise State. Each and every year they appear to be within a hangnail of making it to the BCS Championship game, but fall just short. Their loss to TCU last week by a single point did them in this year. It wouldn't surprise me to seem them flat for this one, resulting in lower-than-normal scoring, especially on the road. San Diego State managed just 18 points last week in a win over Colorado State. This is not the offensive team we saw here last year. They have also been playing better defense of late, allowing just 22 points in their last two games combined. No team has topped the 30-point mark on them all season - something a flat Boise State team may struggle to do as well. Boise State is now 34-19 UNDER in their last 53 games following a home game (including 24-11 UNDER in the Chris Peterson era). Under Peterson, this tema is 11-3 UNDER on the road after scoring 31+ in four straight games. I like this game to play UNDER the total.