Boise State at Nevada

These are a pair of teams that can run the football and play tough defense. Boise State is #18 in the nation defensively, allowing 311 total yards per game. Boise comes off a 19-13 loss at home to San Diego State and the Broncos are 15-5-1 UNDER the total after getting fewer than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Nevada runs a defense that is similar to San Diego State's, a 3-3-5 system that focuses on the run, employing five defensive backs. They are good at pressuring the line to create mistakes. The Broncos mustered just 229 total yards against the Aztecs last Saturday, while the Wolf Pack held Fresno State to 271 yards in a 21-3 loss. Nevada's defense allowed just 30 yards rushing. Nevada is 10-4 UNDER the total when following a double-digit home loss, plus 35-17 UNDER on field-turf. The Wolf Pack defense is seventh in the nation in tackles for loss per game (8.8) and third-down conversion defense (26.1 percent). With the UNDER 5-1 the last five meetings, look for more defense than the oddsmakers anticipate. Take this one to finish UNDER.