Boise State at Nevada

The Broncos have been living on the BCS Bowl bubble the last couple of years, but they lost a lot of talent in the skill positions from a year ago. This is still a good team, but not of the ilk we have seen in recent years. Defensively, the Broncos still get after it, but the offense is not any better than average. The Broncos are usually punishing the bad teams with their offense, but unless they get to 50 points here it will be the first time since 1996 that Boise State did not get to 50 points all season. That is something that they have done 46 times since 1997, and 14 of them came in the last three years. The Broncos have two losses and three wins by 10 points or less, so the respectable teams are staying with them this season. Nevada sure has a good chance of being the next one. The Wolfpack has four losses, but two of those came by just 1 point. Stefphon Jefferson has rushed for over 1,500 yards and Cody Fajardo has passed for over 2,300, so they should be able to score enough to hang around this one. The Broncos were once the kings of the line in NCAA football, but are now just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. And since last season, the Broncops are just 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams like NEvada (teams getting 4.75+ yards per carry). Take Nevada and the points.