Boise State at Fresno State

The Broncos have become a mainstay in BCS talk every season. This year's 2-0 start has them up to No. 10 in the rankings and the talk is again on. This team is definitely for real, but at what point does the hype start affecting their lines? Well, maybe a prime-time Friday game on ESPN, coming off a 48-0 win is that time. Fresno State was supposed to be in position to knock them off a year ago, but a poor start and injuries led to a disappointing season. For the second straight year they took on Wisconsin, this time on the road, and dropped a three-point decision. Fresno jumped out to a quick 21-7 lead midway through the second quarter, but couldn't hold on despite garnering more first downs, more total yards, and a seven-minute time of possession edge. Wisconsin played a perfect game and the difference was a 3-0 turnover battle held by the Badgers. It was the first road game of the year for Fresno, and I would expect the mistakes would be minimized coming back home as they won the stat game vs. Wisconsin. Boise State is in a spot that over the years has proven to be their most prone to a no cover. The Broncos, over the last seven years, have had trouble with the jitters in their first road game as they come in just 1-6 ATS. They are just 10-11 ATS as a road favorite the past five years. Add in the fact that Bowl teams off a perfect 2-0 straight-up and ATS start have only been able to catch the ATS win 29% of the time in game three. Pat Hill has coached Fresno to an 8-4 ATS mark as a home dog, and owns a 61% track record as a dog. Fresno was humiliated 61-7 a year ago and it's payback time! The public is jumping on the Broncos here to the tune of over 70% and that's yet another indicator to me that the right side is Fresno. I will go with the Bulldogs here.