Baylor vs. North Carolina

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL: North Carolina's defense is not good, giving up 34 and 45 points the last two games while playing in the weaker ACC. The Tar Heels are much better at home (1-4 ATS at neutral sites), but the offense is outstanding, averaging 40.9 points behind senior quarterback Marquise Williams (21 TDs, nine INTs). He is a great runner, second on the team with 867 yards, 6.1 yards per carry. They surrendered 608 yards to Clemson the previous game, and 514 yards to NC State two games ago. That will be a major concern against a talented, deep and explosive Baylor offense. Despite using four different quarterbacks under center this season, the Bears lead the nation in scoring (48.0) and total offense (604.6 yards). QB Chris Johnson (220 yards) gets the nod and has a speedy target to throw to in K.D. Cannon (46 catches, 828 yards, six TDs) along with Jay Lee (726 yards). RB Johnny Jefferson, who rushed for 158 yards in the regular-season finale against Texas and has 701 overall, leads the running attack. Baylor is 23-9 ATS on fieldturf and 16-7 ATS against a team with a winning record. Coach Art Briles runs an attacking, up-tempo offense and Baylor is on a 48-21-2 run OVER the total, including 27-10-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record. Take Baylor and the OVER.