This pick was released to clients on December 25, 2016 at 10:29AM ET.
img CFB

Baylor vs. Boise State

December 27, 2016
img10:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

CACTUS BOWL - Any chance the Baylor Bears had of winning the Big-12 Championship went up in smoke when QB Seth Russell went down with a season-ending injury. They could be further hampered with the loss of RB Shock Linwood who will miss the game for what has been called personal reasons. Zach Smith, a highly touted freshman out of Texas, has gotten his career started earlier than expected. He has performed well, throwing for 879 yards and eight TDs in his three starts, and he got a lot of valuable time to prepare for the Broncos. It has been another good year for Boise State who finished 10-2 on the season. However, the Broncos have been slowly slipping on defense the past four years, as the five years that proceeded the last four showed the defense allowing 12.8 to 18.7 points per game. The last four years that range has been 20.2 to 26.8 ppg. That is a slip of over a TD, and this Baylor team has a lot of weapons and speed on the outside. The Broncos offense is still good, and averaged 35.6 ppg on the season. I think both of these teams are going to put up a lot of points, and Baylor can certainly strike quickly and often, while Smith has had a chance to get a lot more comfortable with the offense, and the whole playbook should now be open. Take Baylor and the OVER.

1.5 units on Baylor +7.5 (-105) (risk 1.5 to return 2.93)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Game Total OVER 67 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Baylor Bears img
7
14
3
7
31
Boise State Broncos
0
6
0
6
12
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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