Baylor at TCU

Gary Patterson has turned the Horned Frogs into a powerhouse, plain and simple. They continue to outplay expectations. Under Patterson, this team is 61-48 ATS including 32-17 at home. The Frogs have leaped their way into the polls consistently, and over the last five years they have won 11 or more games four times. This season they are 2-0 having put up 92 points in two games, and ranked #4 in the nation. This is likely to be the fifth year they get to 11+ wins. A potent offense has returned all the key pieces, and the defense is always a team strength under Patterson. They survived a bad game by QB Andy Dalton that gave Oregon State life. Despite having a -2 turnover disadvantage they won the game by 9, and outgained the Beavers by 200 yards despite two fewer possessions. So the 21 points is not expected from Baylor here. Baylor has some weapons on offense but a look back at last year when they played top teams, they produced just 13 against Texas Tech, 3 vs. A&M, 14 vs. Texas, and 7 each vs. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs have now topped the 30-point mark in each of their last nine regular season games. I look for them to have a big day vs. a suspect Baylor defense, and remain focused, thanks to the less-than-stellar final score two weeks ago (style points matter in the AP Top 25). This team is 9-1 ATS under Patterson following a game in which they scored 50+ points. I like the Frogs to roll here.