Baylor at Oklahoma

Oklahoma has won six in a row, but this is a big game against a Top 25 team and Bob Stoops hasn't excelled against strong competition. The Sooners still have two losses this season, losing by 10 to Houston as a two-TD favorite and a 45-24 home loss to Ohio State. It's easy to see that their main problem this season is defense. Oklahoma has been a big disappointment defensively all year, ranked #80 in yards allowed (421 per game) and #122 in the nation in pass defense while surrendering 297.7 yards per contest. They gave up 46 points to TCU, 40 to Texas, 59 to Texas Tech and 45 to Ohio State. The Sooners are also on a 3-7 spread run. Baylor is in town with a great QB in Seth Russell (19 TDs, six INTs), speed to burn in the backfield with Terrance Willams (691 yards, 5.7 yards per carry) and Shin Lockwood (594 yards, 5.9 ypc), plus dynamic WR K.D. Cannon (560 yards). This offense is sixth in the nation in yards and #16 in points (39.8 points per game). Baylor has led the NCAA in total and scoring offense for the past three years. The Bears have the best rushing attack in the Big 12 (278.5 yards pg), which ranks sixth nationally. Baylor is 18-8 ATS against a winning team and the road team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. The Bears have covered seven straight at Oklahoma, including a 48-14 rout two years ago as a +5 dog. Play the points on Baylor.