Ball State at Tulsa

If you like scoring, you'll love this game. Tulsa put up 56 or more points in six games this season and gained 565 yards a game and averaged 47.4 ppg. Ball State put up 459.4 yards per game this year while scoring 36.6 ppg. Both teams convert third downs at over a 50% rate. Tulsa has already played to two totals higher than this on the season and those games saw 100 and 91 points scored. This game has the added offensive advantage to be played on turf, where Tulsa coach Todd Graham has had his teams play 20 of 28 to the OVER. When you put together teams that each out gain their opponent by 1.2 yards or more seven games deep into the season or more, and it is a non-conference game (don't know each other well), the OVER has gone 28-8. This one should be the highest scoring Bowl game of all. And Ball State has the advantage. They lost just one game all season while Tulsa dropped three. Ball State held their opponents to over 10 ppg less than did Tulsa. Ball State has not gotten enough respect in recent years as evidenced by a 23-11 overall ATS mark the past three seasons. Under Todd Graham Tulsa is just 2-9 ATS in road games after September. I like Ball State and the OVER here.