Ball State at Rutgers

West Virginia helped the Big East save a little face, as the conference is now 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in Bowls. It is taking on the look of a conference that is over-valued in the eyes of the odds-makers. Ball State has proven to be a thorn for some pretty good teams' sides this season. They went to Nebraska as a 24.5 point underdog and gave the Cornhuskers fits. They led until the last three minutes of the game, and gained over 600 yards. They played at Navy and came away with the win as a TD underdog. They went to Illinois and were within 4 points in the 4th quarter before losing by 11, but again covering the 13.5 spread. This team stepped out onto the road and played a lot of tough teams tough and we don't expect anything different here. They have a top 30 offense that has moved the ball through the air and on the ground. Nate Davis has been highly efficient, throwing for 27 TDs and only 6 INTs. They also have a solid punter in Chris Miller who averages 45.5 yards per punt. Rutgers slipped a bit from last year's high, and we are not too sure how motivated they will be facing a "no name" in a Bowl game after two years of frenzy. Rutgers has the #2 rated pass defense in the entire NCAA, and since so much of what Ball State does offensively involves throwing the ball, how do they have a chance? That #2 rating is misleading. The Big East is a running conference, and the rest of Rutgers schedule was not against any solid passing team. It isn't ironic that Rutgers gave up 32 ppg vs the only passing teams they faced in the top half of the NCAA. The rank of the rest? Maryland #79, Connecticut #91, Pittsburgh #104, West Virginia #114, Navy #120, Buffalo #63, Norfolk State (non-D1) and Army #97. These rankings are out of 120 teams. The only other top 60 team they faced was Syracuse, but the Orange passed all the time because they trailed in just about every game. Ball State will get their points vs Rutgers, and they have been very competitive against the top teams on their schedule, all at least the caliber of Rutgers. Rutgers was just 2-5 SU and ATS this season vs. winning teams. We don't think a team that finished the season 4-5 should be giving double-digits to a team that scores 32 points per game. This one is closer than it might look.