Ball State at Army

When you see an Army team as a TD+ favorite you certainly should take a close hard look at the game. This team was once a national power, but the last decade of Army football sure hasn't looked pretty. Since the turn of the century, covering nine seasons, Army owns a 20-85 straight-up record, winning just 19% of their football games this decade. During the course of those nine seasons, the Black Knights have never had a season where they won more than four games. Over the same period, they have been listed as a favorite just 10 times. If you exclude their game vs. Navy, where anything can happen, they are just 2-7 ATS as a favorite. And, when they have been favored by two points or more they are just 1-7 ATS, having lost straight up in five of those eight games. Those straight-up losses include one as a 15.5 point favorite and another as a 10 point favorite. The bottom line is that this team giving points, especially in this range, simply makes no sense. Ball State lost a lot of firepower from last year and has struggled, but what they do have is experience defending the triple option. They played Navy and beat them and their triple option each of the last two years. Army does not run it nearly as cleanly or as successfully (four turnovers did them in against Duke last week). I expect more of the same here and will back Ball State in this one.