Auburn vs. Florida State

The whole country (outside of Florida) will be rooting for the miracle Auburn team going from 3-9 last year to the National Title game this season thanks to stunning victories over Georgia and Alabama. However, I think it ends here. No one has been able to stop the Auburn ground game of late, but you need two things to contain or stop it, time and fast, athletic linebackers. Florida State has had five weeks to put together a defensive game plan, and practice containing this unusual Auburn option offense.  The Seminoles have quick and talented LBs in Terrance and Telvin Smith, who have both developed into reliable defenders against the run, plus DE Christian Jones provides an athletic defender on the edge. Florida State has been exceptional against the run for most of the season, and I expect them to have success against Auburn's ground game. The Seminoles are eighth nationally, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry (and just 2.9 in the first halves of games), and the first-team defense has yet to allow a rushing touchdown! Florida State is #1 in scoring defense, allowing a ridiculous 10.7 points per game. Then there is the other side of the ball. How will this Auburn defense contain Florida State's offense? That will be the biggest mismatch on the field. Florida State is second in the nation in scoring (53 points) with great balance. It features QB Jameis Winston (38 TDs, 10 INTs), a pair of NFL caliber-backs, and a trio of wide receivers who each have over 900 yards. And this Auburn defense is poor, allowing 24 points per game (ranked 36th). The Auburn defense is ranked 104th in the nation in pass defense, so look for Famous Jameis to have a day. Five quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards, and two had over 400 yards on this Tigers defense. Auburn needed a last second score to beat Mississippi State, the Tigers were lucky to beat Georgia and Alabama, and they had one loss, 35-21 to LSU. In that game, the Tigers gave up 457 yards (228 rushing). The Tigers were outgained in four games this season and barely outgained their opponents in three other games! When you consider this, the truth is that Auburn was close to having a losing record this season. The Seminoles are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games, 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine bowl games, and their closest game this season was a win by 14 points. Sorry Auburn fans, but Goliath trumps David by double digits. Take Florida State to win big.