Auburn at Mississippi State

A pair of run-oriented SEC offenses clash in this one. Auburn has had bad QB play the last two years and looks just as shaky this season, using three quarterbacks already. Auburn ranks #78 in the nation in passing, making it easier for defenses to focus on stopping the run. The Tigers offense hasn't played well when stepping up, scoring 13 in a loss to Clemson and 16 in a defeat to Texas A&M. Auburn is on an 8-3 run UNDER the total, including 9-3-1 UNDER on natural grass. They've also gone six straight conference games UNDER the total. They run into a Mississippi State offense that also likes to keep it on the ground at #83 in passing yards. The Bulldogs scored 20 points in losses to LSU and South Alabama, and didn't dazzle in a 27-14 win over South Carolina. Mississippi State is 34-16-1 UNDER the total in SEC play, plus 37-18-1 UNDER after a straight-up win. This shapes up as a defensive duel and the last five meetings on this field have all gone UNDER the total -- and that doesn't include last year's 17-9 MSU victory. Play this one to finish UNDER the total.