Auburn at Alabama

Who should be #1 in the BCS? Is it Auburn? No way, Jay! They are very good but look at their schedule. They played no one of substance in their non-conference schedule wheras USC certainly played some excellent teams and Oklahoma also had a tougher non-conference schedule. 'Bama has the defense needed to stay in this one. They have the SEC's top ranked defense, allowing just 230 yards per game. They also have a running game that rivals Auburn's. The Tide are gaining 215 yards per game on the ground. Alabama is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games with Auburn. The Tigers are just 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games in which it was favored over Alabama. I like the line value here as the public is focusing on recent events including 'Bama's 1-2 record and Auburns big win over Georgia. Auburn may have a bit of a letdown after last weeks throttling of Georgia and Bama wants to play the spoiler. We have some nice trends favoring the Crimson Tide here. Get this: Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are just 3-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Also, undefeated road teams off 3 straight wins against conference rivals are only 8-33 ATS over the last 5 seasons. A lean towards the Elephant Tide in this rivalry. Bet 55 to win 50 on the Tide.