Army at Buffalo

The Black Knights have their best team in 20 years, and have opened at 3-0. Many will look at their road woes, which were ugly until recently, and find a way to play against them. Army was 0-20 SU on the road, and 1-19 ATS. They have since been 3-4 SU on the road, and 6-1 ATS. They have played a decent schedule, one that is on or above their level, and have out-gained Temple, UTEP, and Rice by 1358-809. The Black Knights were 1-24 SU on the road, with the lone win against long term worst FBS team in Eastern Michigan. My, how things have changed! They have five players who have rushed for 120 yards or more on the season, led by Andy Davidson 62-334, only a sophomore. They have two competent QBs to run the option. The offense ranks #46 in the country, and the defense #17. Buffalo has had just two winning years in their FBS history, and this will not be the third. They lost to Albany at home, a team they beat last year 51-14, and Nevada on the road 38-14, a team they lost by just three to a year ago. Their two QBs have gone 24-57, completing just 42.1%, against poor competition. Nevada ran all over them in Week 3, and Army will do the same. Buffalo's lack of a passing game, makes them an even worse team, playing from behind. Teams that allowed 5.5 yards a carry in their previous game, playing as a home dog against a team that out-rushed their last three opponents by 100 yards or more are 5-23 ATS. If you extend that to facing an opponent that out-rushed their last three opponents by 150 yards  or more it becomes 0-10 ATS, failing to cover by 11.50 points per game. Home dogs that allowed 37 points or more in their previous game, and facing an opponent that led by 14 points or more at the half in their last two games and are .500 or less, are 10-30 ATS. Army has started 3-0 just two times in the last 36 years, and when they did they went to 4-0, winning by 34.5 ppg. This is a different Army team, so make the play on Army.