Arkansas State vs. Ball State

Ball State had a great season on paper as they finished the regular season at 10-2. The impression of that success is diluted when you take a closer look. The Cardinals did win 10 games, but one was vs. a non-FBS team, and their other nine wins came against teams that finished the season with a combined 32-76 record for a combined winning percentage of .296! Arkansas State may have just seven wins, but they went out and played someone with losses to Memphis, Auburn and Missouri. Replace those three teams with three teams that are .296 and we are looking at a pair of 10-2 teams. As a result, the line looks overdone and is solely based on the records, which as you can see are quite misleading. This is also the third straight Bowl game for Arkansas State and they beat a strong Kent State last year in their Bowl game. Take the points with Arkansas State.