Arkansas State at Utah State

Both Arkansas State and Utah State have played uncompetitive games through the first two weeks. Arkansas State has lost both, while Utah State beat an FCS team big, but lost to USC big, so the stat lines are not going to tell the story. Utah State had a winning record back in 1996, but did not have another until 2011, then they rattled off four straight, but fell back last year to 6-7. It is tough for a team of this stature to maintain a high level. Arkansas State has put together five straight winning seasons and still ride in under the radar as they are 40-25-2 ATS over the period. These teams have followed a similar path over the last several years, each with a lot more success than they had in the past. I think that the line is too high for this one. Arkansas State won and covered their only meeting against Utah State back in 2014. Arkansas State has proven to be a good bounce-back team as they have produced a 12-3 ATS mark after being outrushed by 150 yards or more in their previous game. Utah State is just 22-44 SU in a game after allowing 42 points or more. I think this one is a lot closer than it looks, so take the points on Arkansas State.