Arkansas State at Texas State

Arkansas State has squeezed out a winning record (3-2) despite the offense averaging 2.7 yards per rush. Mobile QB Jaylen Raynor (4 TDs, 5 INTs) is the second-leading rusher with 135 yards behind RB Zak Wallace (164 yards, 3.2 ypc). They come off an 18-16 win over South Alabama with the defense playing well, plus lost just 28-18 at No. 17 Michigan as a +21.5 dog. They're on a 10-7 run UNDER the total. Texas State has a winning record, as well, and is 3-2 UNDER the total. The Texas State defense is going to be sky-high for this one. Texas State was 8-5 last year, but one of the losses was a humiliating 77-31 defeat as a favorite to this Arkansas State squad on the road. The total is 6-2 UNDER in the last eight meetings between these Sun Belt teams on this field. Take Arkansas State/Texas State UNDER the total.