Arkansas State at South Alabama

Arkansas State hasn't won since the opener, and it is a big dog here, but they have a very good offense for first-year coach Butch Jones. Jones had plenty of success coaching at Tennessee (2013-17), Cincinnati (2010-12), and Central Michigan (2007-09), plus as an assistant at Alabama under Nick Saban. Two quarterbacks have combined for 20 TDs and 7 picks, and they've been better since QB Layne Hatcher (12 TDs, 3 INTs) became the starter. They come off a 28-27 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette as an 18-point underdog. College football dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that average 125 or fewer rushing yards per game are 62-26 ATS. South Alabama is 1-3 in Sun Belt play and is off of a 41-31 loss to UL-Monroe as a two-touchdown favorite. The offense averages 3.4 yards per rush, and the team is 2-10 ATS after scoring 31+ points in consecutive games, plus 16-33 ATS after playing two straight conference tilts. Six of the last nine meetings between these rivals have been decided by 10 points or fewer, including last year, 38-31, so back the big dog in another close one. Play Arkansas State.