Arkansas State at South Alabama

A high total for this Sun Belt game, but both can play defense. The Arkansas State Red Wolves won last year's meeting allowing just 10 points in Jonesboro, and two of the last three matchups have been decided by a touchdown or less. Arkansas State QB Fredi Knighten returns to the starting lineup after missing the last three games due to a groin injury suffered in the 27-20 loss to Missouri, so how sharp will he be after a long layoff? Knighten struggled against USC and Missouri, managing only 183 passing yards in two games, and a completion percentage of 41.3. The UNDER is 20-6-1 when Arkansas State is on the road against a team with a winning home record. Can either team score seven points instead of three inside the red zone? South Alabama ranks last in the Sun Belt with a 71.4 conversion rate, while Arkansas State is ninth with a 77.8 mark. South Alabama is home where they play their best defense, 11-4-1 UNDER the total at home, as well as 10-2-1 UNDER in Sun Belt Conference games. Look for far less scoring than oddsmakers anticipate. Play this game UNDER the total.