Arkansas State at Illinois

Ron Zook is a fiery college coach and gets a cupcake from the Sun Belt in the opener. They face a small Arkansas State defense that allowed 30.8 points per game last season, giving up 36 to Indiana of the Big 10 and 56 to Auburn, both losses. The Red Wolves are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games overall and face a powerful Illinois ground attack led by sophomore QB Nathan Scheelhaase (17 TDs, 8 INTS, 1,825 yards), a mobile quarterback who rushed for 868 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and senior RB Jason Ford (480 yards) was very good averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Arkansas State will look to throw it, but Zook likes ball control and the Illini ground game will control the ball and the clock. As a consequence, I can’t see as much scoring as oddsmakers anticipate. Defenses are ahead of the offense in September, especially in opening games. With Illinois having success running the pigskin they will control the tempo and keep the scoring down. Plus, Arkansas State is 20-7-1 UNDER the total in their last 28 road games. So play on Illinois, and play on the UNDER.