Arkansas State at Auburn

Auburn returns eight starters on defense and 50 total lettermen, so they will have ample bodies to compete in the tough SEC. Arkansas State returns nine starters on offense from a team that never topped the 30-point mark in the high-scoring Sun Belt. The bad part is not what is returning, but what has departed. The two that won't be back are the QB and top running back. Over the last five seasons, this team has stepped onto the big stage vs. the big six conferences 11 times and has averaged just 12 points per game. I wouldn't expect them to do much better than that vs. a good Auburn defense, and breaking in a new QB in game one. The Tigers are 47-22 ATS in their last 69 games when holding an opponent to 14 points or less. Arkansas State is just 2-12 ATS the last two seasons on the road and 19-32 ATS on the road under head coach Steve Roberts. The Red Wolves do bring back 10 on defense, so I expect that they can hold Auburn out of the stratosphere. Auburn shut this team out in their meeting a few years ago. More of the same here. Arkansas State has seen 17 of 22 games the past three seasons go UNDER the total including 12 of 14 on the road. I like Auburn and the UNDER here.