Arkansas at Auburn

Ryan Mallett used to have trouble on the road. He has certainly matured and is playing at a high level right now, regardless of location. The Arkansas offense is potent, but the biggest change in the Razorbacks this season has been their defense. They allowed 219 points in their first eight games a year ago (27.4 points per game). But over their past ten games, they have allowed 182 points (18.2 ppg) - a 9.2 point per game improvement. This season they have allowed just 15 points per game. The only loss on Arkansas' schedule was a close defeat to Alabama - a game in which Arkansas covered the spread and outgained the Tide. Auburn is a surprise at 6-0, but the fact is that they haven't exactly blown out all comers. They own three wins by 3 points each and another by 8, so the margin for error here is very slim. Facing a tough Arkansas team that is playing weel on both sides of the ball now, will be quite the challenge. The Razorbacks have a clean slate in their last five conference games at 5-0 ATS, and are now riding momentum to an 8-1 ATS mark off a straight-up win. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS since last season when facing a top-level team (teams at .750 or better). The Tigers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 posted as a favorite. I like Arkansas in this one.