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Alabama vs. Notre Dame

January 7, 2013
img8:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

It has been a long trecherous road to the BCS Championship game for Notre Dame. They had a pair of close calls with overtime wins against BYU and Pittsburgh, but managed to get here unblemshed at 12-0. The Tide were taken down by A&M at home, as Johny football led the Aggies to the huge upset. After their 41-13 dismantling of Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl on Friday, it's pretty apparent that A&M is a great football team (arguably the best in the country). Alabama rebounded from that lone loss with a come from behind wins vs. LSU and Georgia to finish 12-1 and find their way back to the title game for the third time in four years. There isn't too much to give with these teams on the defensive side of the ball, each allowing less than 11 points per game on the season. The biggest difference is the Tide has a much more balanced offense. This game is going to likely come down to turnovers, field position and red-zone success. A.J. McCarron is an unlikely candidate to make mistakes, with just three INT's on the season. The Tide will be the ultimate challenge for the best red-zone defense in the country which has allowed just eight red-zone TD's in 33 attempts. Alabama will be their stiffest challenge yet with a nation's leading 89% success rate in the red-zone, including 41-57 red-zone TD's. The biggest obstacle here is Notre Dame on the season had just 35 TD's and 23 FG's. The Tide's defense is likely to force field goals, if at all. Against top defenses this season (Michigan, Michigan State and Stanford), Notre Dame averaged less than five yards per play. Meanwhile against Michigan, LSU, A&M and Georgia, Bama averaged over 6.75 yards per play. That is a tremendous advantage. If Notre Dame gets behind, they are going to be in trouble as throwing the ball is not their greatest asset. At the same time. vs. those top three defenses, Golson was not a factor with his legs, having just 19 carries for 58 yards. Alabama has been here a lot and has a defense at the very least on a par with Notre Dame. And, they own a much more versatile offense that is capable of touchdowns, even against elite defenses. Take Alabama.

1 unit on Notre Dame -9.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Alabama Crimson Tide img
14
14
7
7
42
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
0
0
7
7
14
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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