Alabama at Mississippi State

Alabama was thinking SEC title game and another national championship. This week, it's all pretty much gone after a bumbling performance Saturday in a 9-6 OT loss at home to LSU. They had three missed field goals, two crushing turnovers and countless missed opportunities. Poor execution cost them what could have easily been a win. After an upset loss to South Carolina last year, this team was lethargic in a 23-10 win over Ole Miss as 20-point chalk. Four years ago when they lost the SEC title game to Florida (their first loss), the Tide looked disinterested in their next game, a 31-17 bowl loss to Utah. The Crimson Tide is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up loss and I expect them again to be a bit dis-interested here. While Bama lost its Super Bowl last week, this will be Mississippi State's Bowl game. This is a team that was supposed to have a better season, as they were ranked in the Top 20 in September. This defense has been great all season and allows 18.7 points per game (No. 16 in the nation), and this triple-option offense is tough to defend and game plan against. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take a moviated Mississippi State team against a dis-interested Tide. I also see a defensive game and like the UNDER. The Bulldogs are outstanding defensively and the offense can keep the clock churning with a ground attack that averages 187 yards rushing per game. Alabama has a dominant defense, holding LSU to 9 points and allowing just 7.1 points per game - tops in the nation. The UNDER is 20-9-1 in the Crimson Tide's last 30 conference games, while Mississippi State is 10-3 UNDER the total in their last 13 conference games. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the last five meetings in Mississippi State, as well as a perfect 4-0 UNDER the last four meetings overall. Take Mississippi State and the UNDER.