Air Force at UNLV

It has been a long season for UNLV. The Rebels enter this game at just 2-8 on the season. While they have been awful on the road (0-5 SU and ATS), they have been a lot more competitive at home, going 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS. When you consider their three home losses have been to TCU, Nevada and Wisconsin, the Rebels have won their other two home games by a combined 61 points. They lost their game to Wisconsin by just 20, and to Nevada by just 18. This Air Force club is good, but a bit less potent than two teams they hung around this number with. I think this is an overlay. The Falcons have not fared well as a big chalk as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four posted at -10.5 or more. UNLV has taken the cash as a home dog, with a 12-5 ATS mark in their last 17. I like the Rebs here.