This pick was released to clients on December 03, 2015 at 4:42PM ET.
img CFB

Air Force at San Diego State

December 5, 2015
img7:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Air Force chews up yards and the clock with this great ground attack, which helps keep scoring down. But don't overlook this defense, either, a unit that makes plays behind the line with a linebacker corps that doesn’t miss stops. They come off a weak defensive game against New Mexico State, but that has not been the norm this season. They went to Michigan State and held the Spartans to 324 total yards. Michigan State had 77 rushing yards at just 1.8 yards per carry at home. The Academy scores more per game (34.4) than do the Aztecs (31.7). The Falcons' offense has been able to grind out drives and control the clock and the tempo. The UNDER is also 5-0 after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. They face a strong all-around San Diego State team that has home field. The defense has been great all season, on a 19-7 run UNDER the total, including 11-2 UNDER at home. The UNDER is 12-4 in the Aztecs last 16 conference games. And when these teams clash the UNDER is 6-1, including a perfect 6-0 UNDER in San Diego. Defense rules in a close game, so take the Falcons and the UNDER.

1 unit on Air Force +6.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 50 -110 (risk 1.5 to return 2.86)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Air Force Falcons
7
3
7
7
24
San Diego State Aztecs img
0
10
7
10
27
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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