Air Force at Navy

Air Force heads to Annapolis to play for the Commander-in-Chief trophy in what is the third road game in four weeks for the Falcons. Under new head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force has pulled off a couple of shocking upset wins over Utah and TCU but then got hammered 31-6 last week by BYU. Navy's been a relative dissapointment posting an 0-4 ATS mark to start the year. This, and a terrible defense that has allowed 34 points per game, is keeping this line lower than it should be. Navy, normally a defensive stalwart, has struggled against the pass this year. They gave up 428 yards to Duke last week and are allowing 66% completion ratio. But Air Force doesn't throw. They run the ball three out of every four plays. Navy should be able to step up up against the one-dimensional Falcons attack. And, Navy has offense. They are averaging 33 points per game and 360 rushing yards per game (5.9 yards per rush). The Midshipmen take games vs. other service acadamies seriously. Under head coach Paul Johnson, they are 8-2 ATS in these matchups and they have covered the spread in this matchup 11 of the last 15 times. They have a bye coming up and are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 prior to an off week. In what is anticipated to be a close game, we like Navy at home, with their pedigree in these kinds of a games and a distinct head coaching advantage.