This pick was released to clients on November 30, 2023 at 10:33AM ET.
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Toledo (CFB-312) MONEYLINE + Texas (CFB-310) MONEYLINE + Michigan (CFB-323) MONEYLINE

December 2, 2023
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Premium Pick

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma State played its best football at home but was 3-2 straight up away from home as they head to Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys are a run-oriented squad, as three quarterbacks have combined for 13 TDs and 13 interceptions. The defense is 112th in yards allowed (426.1 per game), 77th in points allowed (28.6 per contest), and 78th on third down (40.38%). Texas has won all five of its games away from home. The Longhorns have an outstanding balance on offense behind QB Quinn Ewers (17 TDs, 5 INTs) and RB Jonathon Brooks (1,139 yards, 6.1 ypc). The offense is 15th in total yards (460.4 per game) and 14th in scoring (35.1 per game), while the defense is 23rd in yards given up, 11th in points allowed (17.3 per contest), fourth versus the run, and No. 1 on third down (25.64%). They knocked off then-No. 3 Alabama, 34-24, and ripped No. 24 Kansas, 40-14. 

Mac Championship Game: Over the last five games, Miami of Ohio squeezed by 4-8 Ball State, 17-15, and lost at home to this Toledo squad, 21-17. They've lost QB Brett Gabbert and have to start sophomore QB Aveon Smith (2 TDs, 2 picks) for this one. He had one TD and two interceptions in the last game against Ball State. Meanwhile, Toledo has won 11 in a row. The offense is potent and balanced behind junior QB Dequan Finn (21 TDs, 8 INTs) and RB Peny Boone (1,359 yards, 7.4 ypc). The ground game averages 5.5 yards per rush, the fifth-best in the country. In the first meeting, Miami of Ohio lost despite having QB Gabbert while rushing for just 3.5 yards per carry. Toledo ran for 158 yards.  Big Ten Championship Game: Iowa survived in the weak Big Ten West despite a terrible offense. Two Hawkeye QBs combined for nine TDs and nine picks, while the ground game rushes for just 3.5 yards per carry. They stepped up once to face a Top 20 team and lost 31-0 to Penn State. Michigan has it all behind QB J.J. McCarthy (19 TDs, 4 INTs) and a defense that is second in the nation in yards given up and No. 1 in points allowed (10.3 per game). Michigan won at Iowa last year, 27-14, with a 172-35 edge in rushing yards. 

Combine the Longhorns (-635), the Rockets (-315), and the Wolverines (-1700) into a 3-team parlay at -163 odds.

1 unit on 3 Team Parlay: (-163) (risk 1 to return 1.61)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Miami Ohio RedHawks img
10
23
Toledo Rockets
0
14
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Oklahoma State Cowboys
7
21
Texas Longhorns img
21
49
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Michigan Wolverines img
10
26
Iowa Hawkeyes
0
0
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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